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So what opportunities and challenges will my country's foreign trade just come in 2022? Our reporter applied Delphifa to investigate 50 experts and scholars in the field of foreign trade, officials of government departments, staff members of trade agencies, heads of foreign trade enterprises, and financial media reporters. The survey results show that the interviewees are confident in foreign trade development in 2022 and summarize the top ten trends with obvious performance.
1. Global trade slowly recovers, and the Asia -Pacific region will become the most active area of international trade
Liang Guoyong, a senior economic affairs official of the United Nations Trade and Development Conference, said that according to the estimates of the United Nations Trade Conference, the total global cargo and service trade in 2021 is expected to increase by 23%compared with the previous year to $ 28 trillion. He analyzed that after the strong recovery of 2021, global trade may show a relatively weak recovery trend.
On the one hand, the epidemic is still raging globally, and the suppression of service trade is still very strong; on the other hand, facing a severe threat of high inflation, the major economies will inevitably exit quantitative loose and educational interest rate hike cycles, and monetary policy turns sharply. It will inevitably have a negative impact on the demand for cargo trade and increase global economic risks. The Asia -Pacific economy showed strong toughness under the impact of the epidemic, and the trade relations in the region have strengthened. Due to the ability to cope with the epidemic, the Asia -Pacific region has stable production, strong exports, and rapid economic recovery. This provides support from the supply side and the world economic recovery.
2. China `s foreign trade growth in 2022 is full of confidence
48%of interviewees believe that compared with 2021, my country's foreign trade will still grow in 2022 but the growth rate may slow down. 28%of interviewees believe that my country's foreign trade will continue the strong growth trend last year. So where does my country's foreign trade growth come from? The survey shows that 90%of the respondents believe that foreign trade between my country and countries along the [Belt and Road" will continue to grow, which is an important driving force for my country's foreign trade growth. Interviewees believe that the rapid development of the new business and new model, the gradual implementation of the foreign trade policy, the improvement of the utilization rate of the free trade agreement and the continuous optimization of the product structure will be an important factor in driving the growth of foreign trade exports. The speeding up and speed up the construction of the port port of free trade will help further expand import.
3.Foreign trade enterprises will increase integrated transformation of domestic and foreign trade
Promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade is an important part of the construction of a new development pattern of a new development pattern of domestic large cycles as the main body and the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles. This has also been further confirmed in this survey, and 90%of the respondents believe that foreign trade enterprises will increase the integrated transformation of domestic and foreign trade. Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Integrated Trade in Domestic and Foreign and Foreign", which promoted the integration of domestic and foreign trade, forming a strong domestic market, and unblocking domestic and international dual -loop deployment, and specifically proposed 15 work measures from four aspects.
In the opinion of the respondents, the integrated transformation of domestic and foreign trade is not a measure of the right to deal with the changes in the international environment, but an important strategic measure. For my country's economy, it is a specific measure for my country to further open up the domestic large market and integrate into the world market. For enterprises, in the moment my country has become a "world market", incorporating the domestic market into its plan is competitive. The only way for international enterprises and global enterprises.
4.All parties hope that Sino -US economic and trade relations will improve
In this survey, some interviewees have different views, so they are not presented in these trends. For example, whether new concepts such as the Yuan Universe will drive the development of foreign trade in related industries, and so on. However, because Sino -US economic and trade relations are the focus of worldwide attention, its trend will have a profound impact on the world economic and trade structure.
Therefore, we will show the survey results here: 40%of the respondents believe that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States will maintain the status quo, and 34%of the respondents believe that they are more uncertain. 20%of the respondents think that they will gradually improve. 6%of the respondents believe that they may gradually deteriorate. At the same time, all interviewees said that 2022 is the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China. It is hoped that on this special significance node, Sino -US economic and trade relations can be improved.